June 30, 2025

DDR4 Shock Prices, China’s Export Delays, and Nvidia Nears $4 Trillion

Round-up

  1. China’s export-licence logjam isn’t over. Rare-earth magnet approvals are still coming through at barely 60 % of normal volumes, keeping auto and server makers on edge and reversing last week’s “truce” narrative 12.
  2. Legacy memory turns premium. Spot prices for 8 Gb DDR4 parts have doubled in a month and now sit above DDR5, after a top Chinese DRAM house signalled it will retire DDR4 by 2026 3.
  3. Nvidia flirts with a $4 T valuation. A 3 % rally pushed the GPU giant within 6 % of the once-unthinkable four-trillion-dollar line, buoyed by fresh AI server demand data 4.

Other developments

  • Tokyo Electron sees China share of sales falling to 30 % as U.S. tool curbs bite 5
  • SEMI Europe publishes a wish-list for the EU’s REACH chemicals overhaul 6
  • Microsoft’s home-grown Maia AI chip slips into 2026 mass-production 7
  • TSMC’s second Arizona fab to start 3 nm tool-in by 3Q 2026; U.S. wafers may rise >10 % next year 8
  • Shanghai team demos “Meteor-1”, a 100-channel on-chip optical computer 9
  • A*STAR opens the world’s first open 200 mm SiC pilot line in Singapore 10
  • Intel’s Nova Lake-S leak points to 52-core desktop parts and some 2 nm outsourcing to TSMC 11
  • Intel courts Korean fabless firms at its first overseas Foundry Connect road-show 12
  • Meta shops for $29 B (≈ US $29 B) to fund hyperscale AI data-centres 13

Did you know? Meteor-1’s photonic core packs more than 100 parallel wavelength channels on a single die, a record for an integrated optical computer 9.


In-depth

1 | Government & Corporate Policy

  • Rare-earth licences still rationed

    • Export volume down ~75 % from pre-April levels despite 27 June U.S.–China “framework” 1.
    • European importers get priority; U.S.-bound magnets face the longest waits 2.
  • Tokyo Electron pivots R&D as China slows

    • TEL now models China at 30 % of FY25 sales (40 % six months ago) 5.
    • ¥1.5 T (≈ US $9.4 B) five-year R&D plan and 10 k new engineers aim to diversify tools portfolio.
  • SEMI Europe’s REACH position paper

    • Calls for risk-based chemical rules to avoid clashes with the Chips Act and to safeguard advanced-node supplies 6.
    • Urges a semiconductor-specific derogation process for high-NA photoresist chemistries.
  • Intel’s diplomatic foundry tour

    • Foundry Connect Seoul drew SK hynix, LG Electronics and Arm; focus on HBM base dies and 2.5D packaging synergies 12.
    • Seoul event suggests Intel is courting non-U.S. clients to de-risk geopolitics.

2 | Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • DDR4 shock premium

    • 8 Gb spot at > US $2.90, eclipsing DDR5 for the first time; TrendForce flags panic buys if U.S. tariff chatter resurfaces 3.
    • Board makers already scrubbing BOMs to re-qualify older densities.
  • Nvidia’s valuation gravity test

    • Street now models FY25 data-centre revenue at US $192 B, up 56 % y/y 4.
    • Analysts see any slip in Blackwell ramp as a macro risk, not a demand one.
  • TSMC Arizona cost pass-through

    • P2 equipment move-in pulled forward to 3Q 26; Commercial Times source pegs 2026 U.S. wafer hikes at >10 % 8.
    • U.S. clients negotiating multi-year cost-plus clauses tied to tariff scenarios.
  • Meta’s cap-ex crowdfunding

    • Company courts Apollo and Brookfield for a US $29 B “AI real-estate” JV that keeps the spend off its own balance sheet 13.
    • Mirrors Microsoft–Brookfield 2024 model; underlines hunger for off-sheet AI infra finance.

3 | Technology & R&D

  • Photonics leap: Meteor-1

    • Shanghai SIOM’s chip integrates multi-wavelength sources, switching and detectors for >100-way parallel ops 9.
    • Prototype hints at sub-pJ/bit compute for inferencing clusters.
  • Singapore’s open SiC line

    • A*STAR IME’s 200 mm pilot fab offers shared process modules down to 90 nm, lowering entry cost for EV and power start-ups 10.
    • Partners include Wolfspeed and Applied Materials on tool kits.
  • Intel’s Nova Lake architecture

    • Coyote Cove P-cores, Arctic Wolf E-cores and new LPE-cores promise >10 % ST and >60 % MT gains 11.
    • Compute tile likely fabbed at TSMC N2, while IO remains on Intel 18A.
  • Tool roadmaps & materials

    • SiCarrier roadmap (not shown at SEMICON but leaked via TEL brief) targets ASML-compatible dry etch tools in 2026, underscoring China’s push for indigenous 5 nm chains 5.

Footnotes


  1. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-rare-earths-are-flowing-again-not-freely-2025-06-27/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. https://www.ft.com/content/13d18620-d3d8-417e-b7fb-40d97fc064bf ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/30/news-ddr4-spot-prices-reportedly-double-as-chinas-memory-maker-rumored-to-phase-out-production-by-2026/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. https://techxplore.com/news/2025-06-nvidia-breakout-trillion.html ↩︎ ↩︎

  5. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/30/news-tokyo-electron-reportedly-sees-china-sales-dropping-to-30-in-2025-amid-tightening-u-s-export-curbs/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  6. https://www.semi.org/en/semi-press-release/semi-europe-publishes-recommendations-for-the-reach-revision ↩︎ ↩︎

  7. https://www.reuters.com/business/microsofts-next-gen-ai-chip-production-delayed-2026-information-reports-2025-06-27/ ↩︎

  8. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/30/news-tsmcs-2nd-arizona-fab-reportedly-to-install-3nm-gear-in-3q26-u-s-price-hikes-likely-over-10-next-year/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  9. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/30/news-china-made-breakthrough-in-ultra-highly-parallel-optical-computing-integrated-chip/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  10. https://www.eetimes.com/astar-ime-launches-world-first-200mm-sic-open-rd-line/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  11. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/30/news-more-intel-nova-lake-buzz-10-performance-boost-fresh-cores-and-foundry-partners/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  12. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/27/news-intels-first-overseas-foundry-connect-in-seoul-sparks-sk-hynix-hbm-buzz/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  13. https://www.reuters.com/business/meta-seeks-29-billion-private-capital-firms-ai-data-centers-ft-reports-2025-06-27/ ↩︎ ↩︎