June 30, 2025

Round-up

1. China’s export-licence logjam isn’t over. Rare-earth magnet approvals are still coming through at barely 60 % of normal volumes, keeping auto and server makers on edge and reversing last week’s “truce” narrative ¹².
2. Legacy memory turns premium. Spot prices for 8 Gb DDR4 parts have doubled in a month and now sit above DDR5, after a top Chinese DRAM house signalled it will retire DDR4 by 2026 ³.
3. Nvidia flirts with a $4 T valuation. A 3 % rally pushed the GPU giant within 6 % of the once-unthinkable four-trillion-dollar line, buoyed by fresh AI server demand data ⁴.

Other developments

• Tokyo Electron sees China share of sales falling to 30 % as U.S. tool curbs bite ⁵
• SEMI Europe publishes a wish-list for the EU’s REACH chemicals overhaul ⁶
• Microsoft’s home-grown Maia AI chip slips into 2026 mass-production ⁷
• TSMC’s second Arizona fab to start 3 nm tool-in by 3Q 2026; U.S. wafers may rise >10 % next year ⁸
• Shanghai team demos “Meteor-1”, a 100-channel on-chip optical computer ⁹
• A*STAR opens the world’s first open 200 mm SiC pilot line in Singapore ¹⁰
• Intel’s Nova Lake-S leak points to 52-core desktop parts and some 2 nm outsourcing to TSMC ¹¹
• Intel courts Korean fabless firms at its first overseas Foundry Connect road-show ¹²
• Meta shops for $29 B (≈ US $29 B) to fund hyperscale AI data-centres ¹³

Did you know? Meteor-1’s photonic core packs more than 100 parallel wavelength channels on a single die, a record for an integrated optical computer ⁹.

In-depth

1 | Government & Corporate Policy

• Rare-earth licences still rationed

  • Export volume down ~75 % from pre-April levels despite 27 June U.S.–China “framework” ¹.
  • European importers get priority; U.S.-bound magnets face the longest waits ².

• Tokyo Electron pivots R&D as China slows

  • TEL now models China at 30 % of FY25 sales (40 % six months ago) ⁵.
  • ¥1.5 T (≈ US $9.4 B) five-year R&D plan and 10 k new engineers aim to diversify tools portfolio.

• SEMI Europe’s REACH position paper

  • Calls for risk-based chemical rules to avoid clashes with the Chips Act and to safeguard advanced-node supplies ⁶.
  • Urges a semiconductor-specific derogation process for high-NA photoresist chemistries.

• Intel’s diplomatic foundry tour

  • Foundry Connect Seoul drew SK hynix, LG Electronics and Arm; focus on HBM base dies and 2.5D packaging synergies ¹².
  • Seoul event suggests Intel is courting non-U.S. clients to de-risk geopolitics.

2 | Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

• DDR4 shock premium

  • 8 Gb spot at > US $2.90, eclipsing DDR5 for the first time; TrendForce flags panic buys if U.S. tariff chatter resurfaces ³.
  • Board makers already scrubbing BOMs to re-qualify older densities.

• Nvidia’s valuation gravity test

  • Street now models FY25 data-centre revenue at US $192 B, up 56 % y/y ⁴.
  • Analysts see any slip in Blackwell ramp as a macro risk, not a demand one.

• TSMC Arizona cost pass-through

  • P2 equipment move-in pulled forward to 3Q 26; Commercial Times source pegs 2026 U.S. wafer hikes at >10 % ⁸.
  • U.S. clients negotiating multi-year cost-plus clauses tied to tariff scenarios.

• Meta’s cap-ex crowdfunding

  • Company courts Apollo and Brookfield for a US $29 B “AI real-estate” JV that keeps the spend off its own balance sheet ¹³.
  • Mirrors Microsoft–Brookfield 2024 model; underlines hunger for off-sheet AI infra finance.

3 | Technology & R&D

• Photonics leap: Meteor-1

  • Shanghai SIOM’s chip integrates multi-wavelength sources, switching and detectors for >100-way parallel ops ⁹.
  • Prototype hints at sub-pJ/bit compute for inferencing clusters.

• Singapore’s open SiC line

  • A*STAR IME’s 200 mm pilot fab offers shared process modules down to 90 nm, lowering entry cost for EV and power start-ups ¹⁰.
  • Partners include Wolfspeed and Applied Materials on tool kits.

• Intel’s Nova Lake architecture

  • Coyote Cove P-cores, Arctic Wolf E-cores and new LPE-cores promise >10 % ST and >60 % MT gains ¹¹.
  • Compute tile likely fabbed at TSMC N2, while IO remains on Intel 18A.

• Tool roadmaps & materials

  • SiCarrier roadmap (not shown at SEMICON but leaked via TEL brief) targets ASML-compatible dry etch tools in 2026, underscoring China’s push for indigenous 5 nm chains ⁵.

Footnotes