June 12, 2025

Round-up

Highlights

1. Micron pledges a mammoth $200 billion U.S. build-out—$150 billion for new memory fabs and $50 billion for R&D—only a day after it roiled DRAM markets with steep contract-price hikes.¹
2. Washington and Beijing say their fragile trade truce is “done”: a fixed 55 % U.S. tariff versus China’s 10 %, relaxed rare-earth curbs—and no give on high-end AI-chip export rules.²³
3. Samsung’s 2 nm Exynos hits prototype mass production at a (still modest) 50 % yield, signalling real progress toward 2026 Galaxy devices and fresh competition for TSMC on the leading edge.⁴

Other developments

• Synopsys quietly re-opens limited customer support in China while core EDA tool sales remain frozen.⁵
• Samsung fails a third time to pass NVIDIA’s 12-high HBM3E validation; retest now slated for September.⁶
• Qualcomm snaps up UK connectivity specialist Alphawave Semi for $2.4 billion, betting on chiplet-based AI networking IP.⁷
• Dutch packager Besi lifts long-term revenue target to €1.5-€1.9 billion (~$1.73-$2.19 billion) on hybrid-bonding demand.⁸
• Researchers warn HBM5 may need immersion cooling to tame thermal density in 2029-era stacks.⁹

Did you know? HBM5’s projected heat-flux density could exceed 1 kW cm⁻², nearly 5× today’s HBM3E modules—hence the push for liquid immersion as standard.⁹

In-depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

• U.S.–China tariff framework finalised

  • 55 % composite duty on Chinese imports is now “unalterable,” while China agrees to lift rare-earth magnet quotas.²
  • No quid-pro-quo on advanced AI-chip export licences, keeping NVIDIA’s H20 ban in place.²

• China formally endorses the London accord

  • Beijing’s foreign-ministry spokesman urged both sides to “abide by the consensus,” underscoring rare-earth supply commitments.³
  • Commerce officials said licence approvals for critical-mineral exports to EU and U.S. firms will be “strengthened,” but offered no numbers.³

• Synopsys resumes limited China services

  • SolvNet reopened with document restrictions; hardware IP sales allowed for existing customers only.⁵
  • Essential EDA tools remain black-listed, muting near-term revenue recovery.

• Micron’s New York mega-fab slips again

  • Ground-breaking moved to late 2025 after the Army Corps and county agency asked for more environmental work.¹⁰
  • Fourth delay raises questions about CHIPS-Act permitting timelines.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

• Micron’s $200 billion U.S. plan

  • Second Boise DRAM fab and Manassas expansion will anchor domestic HBM capacity.¹
  • Street analysts say cash burn is manageable after $6.1 billion CHIPS grant and soaring AI-memory margins.

• Besi pivots to advanced packaging boom

  • New long-range operating-margin band lifted to 40-55 % on hybrid-bonding orders from TSMC and Intel.⁸
  • Shares jumped 7.5 % on the AEX.

• Qualcomm buys Alphawave for $2.4 billion

  • Deal adds 2 nm UCIe IP and high-speed SerDes to Qualcomm’s custom-data-centre roadmap.⁷
  • Closing in Q1 2026 pending UK national-security review.

• IC-design sector sets record

  • TrendForce pegs Q1 25 revenue at $77.4 billion, +6 % QoQ, driven by early stocking ahead of new U.S. electronics tariffs and AI data-centre builds.¹¹

3. Technology & R&D

• Samsung 2 nm milestone

  • Exynos 2600 prototype run hits 50 % yield; full production targeted for early 2026.⁴
  • Company courting NVIDIA and Qualcomm for 2 nm GPU/AP orders to diversify away from TSMC.⁴

• HBM3E hiccup

  • Samsung’s 12-high stack still fails NVIDIA’s full-package tests; Micron’s 12-high HBM4 samples already shipping at ~70 % yield.⁶
  • Analysts warn Samsung risks ceding AI-memory leadership by one full generation.

• HBM5 cooling race

  • KAIST research cited by TrendForce says immersion fluid may become de facto standard as layer counts rise to 16-high.⁹
  • Vendors exploring integrated micro-channels and dielectric fluids.

• Alphawave’s UCIe 2 nm demo

  • First 36 Gbps die-to-die subsystem on TSMC N2 shows 11.8 Tbps mm⁻² bandwidth—now Qualcomm’s to commercialise.⁷

Footnotes