June 11, 2025

Supply Chains Eased, Memory Markets Roiled

Round-up

  1. Washington and Beijing struck a rare-earth détente that could loosen magnet supplies for U.S. fabs—yet the pact still leaves Nvidia’s H20 export ban in limbo, marking only a partial shift from the stalemate we covered yesterday.1
  2. Micron’s shock 50 % hike on DDR4 contracts—amid Samsung’s final production runs—has pushed some DDR4 spot quotes above DDR5, up-ending pricing models across server OEMs.2
  3. Qualcomm opened a new AI R&D centre in Hanoi, signalling that Southeast Asia intends to move from assembly to front-end innovation in the AI silicon stack.3

Other developments

  • Nvidia pledged a 10× boost to European AI compute capacity and 18 k Blackwell GPUs for French start-up Mistral.4
  • Honda is weighing a multi-billion-yen stake in Rapidus to secure 2 nm automotive chips beyond its TSMC supply pact.5
  • NXP will shutter four 8-inch fabs (one in Nijmegen, three in the U.S.) as it pivots to 12-inch lines.6
  • DDR4 and DDR5 have reached price parity on the spot market—an unprecedented inversion.7
  • White House AI czar David Sacks downplayed smuggling risks for U.S. AI GPUs and hinted at looser export guidance.8
  • Nvidia GPUs now power 201 of the Top500 supercomputers; AMD still leads on CPU cores.9
  • GCT Semiconductor began volume shipments of 5 G chipsets and FWA modules to lead customers.10
  • Investment Partners Asset Management doubled its ASML stake, underscoring confidence in EUV demand.11

Did you know? Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs already sit in 27 of the world’s fastest systems—an install-base tripling in just one year.9


In-depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

  • Rare-earth framework

    • Officials agreed to remove China’s export restrictions while leaving AI-chip rules untouched.1
    • Analysts note the move could shave 6-8 weeks off magnet lead-times for U.S. packaging plants.
  • AI export posture

    • David Sacks argued that “8-ft-tall servers don’t fit in a briefcase,” urging lighter regulation.8
    • His remarks hint the Commerce Department may revisit licensing thresholds for cloud providers.
  • Vietnam’s AI push

    • Qualcomm’s Hanoi lab will staff 200 engineers, focusing on on-device generative AI and XR SoCs.3
    • The centre plugs into Vietnam’s $1.3 bn national chip strategy announced in April.
  • Japan’s sovereign foundry play

    • Honda’s prospective Rapidus investment would diversify 2 nm supply for autonomous-drive ASICs.5
    • Rapidus still faces a ¥3 trn ($19.2 bn) funding gap—automakers’ capital could unlock state aid tranches.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • Micron DDR4 price shock

    • Contract quotes jumped 50 % as Samsung’s final DDR4 lots sold out; some distributors report 100 % spikes.2
    • Server OEMs are accelerating DDR5 qualifications to avoid Q3 margin erosion.
  • DDR4–DDR5 parity

    • TrendForce data show mainstream DDR4 1 G×8 now averages $3.31, overtaking early DDR5 parts.7
    • Analysts expect parity to persist until Samsung’s last DDR4 line idles in September.
  • Nvidia’s European build-out

    • Jensen Huang pledged to quintuple regional data-centre capacity, starting with 18 k Blackwell GPUs for Mistral AI.4
    • The move offsets lost China revenue and leverages generous EU energy subsidies.
  • Capital-market signals

    • Asset manager IPA boosted its ASML holding by 120 %, citing “monopoly-grade” EUV demand.11
    • ASML now trades at 37.7 × forward earnings versus 42 × for Lam, narrowing the multiple gap.

3. Technology & R&D

  • Qualcomm Hanoi lab

    • Projects span low-power agentic AI silicon for XR and edge servers.3
    • Vietnam’s universities will feed a dedicated talent pipeline under the deal.
  • Neuromorphic microcontrollers

    • Innatera’s Pulsar MCU adds analog and digital spiking neural fabrics, hitting sub-1 mW radar inference.12
    • A PyTorch extension simplifies SNN model porting for sensor fusion designs.
  • HPC accelerator mix

    • Nvidia’s Grace-Hopper chips account for half of the new Top500 FLOPS, while AMD added 11 new EPYC CPU systems.9
    • Intel’s GPU share outside China slipped to 13 %.
  • 5 G modem progress

    • GCT Semiconductor shipped first-gen 5 G chipsets to Airspan and Orbic; further lots run through June.10
    • The GDM7243SL modems target FWA C-band gateways and NTN NB-IoT links.

Footnotes


  1. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/view-analysts-react-us-china-trade-agreement-2025-06-11/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/11/news-micron-rumored-to-hike-ddr4-prices-by-50-as-samsung-runs-out-early-industry-says-pricing-in-chaos/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/qualcomm-launches-ai-rd-centre-vietnam-2025-06-11/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. https://www.spacedaily.com/afp/250611112258.oeej8v97.html ↩︎ ↩︎

  5. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/11/news-honda-reportedly-plans-rapidus-investment-to-secure-advanced-chips-beyond-tsmc-deal/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  6. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/11/news-nxp-reportedly-to-shut-four-8-inch-fabs-including-its-largest-in-12-inch-transition/ ↩︎

  7. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/11/insights-memory-spot-price-update-ddr4-and-ddr5-chips-hit-price-parity-in-early-june-amid-soaring-hikes/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  8. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-is-only-3-6-months-behind-us-ai-trump-official-says-2025-06-10/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  9. https://www.tradingview.com/news/gurufocus%3Aa01001600094b%3A0-nvidia-powers-half-of-top-supercomputers-amd-leads-in-cpu-cores/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  10. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250611726053/en/GCT-Semiconductor-Celebrates-Major-Milestone-with-Delivery-of-5G-Chipsets-and-Modules-to-Customers ↩︎ ↩︎

  11. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-investment-partners-asset-management-inc-grows-stake-in-asml-holding-nasdaqasml-2025-06-11/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  12. https://www.eetimes.com/innatera-adds-more-accelerators-to-spiking-microcontroller/ ↩︎