June 10, 2025

TSMC Revenue Soars, U.S.-China Talks Stall on Nvidia Ban, SK hynix Pushes DRAM Boundaries

Round-up

  1. TSMC posted a 40 % YoY revenue jump for May, showing that AI-server demand is still outrunning a broader electronics slowdown1.
  2. Day-2 London talks between Washington and Beijing edged toward narrowly easing export controls—but the U.S. refused to lift the ban on Nvidia’s H20 GPUs, keeping China’s premium-AI bottleneck in place23.
  3. At the VLSI Symposium, SK hynix outlined a 4F-Vertical-Gate + 3-D DRAM roadmap that pushes sub-10 nm scaling for next-gen HBM and LPDDR, promising denser, cooler memory stacks for AI accelerators4.

Other developments

  • Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei admitted Ascend chips trail U.S. rivals by “about one generation,” but touted cluster computing and compound-chip designs as work-arounds5.
  • China began case-by-case reviews of rare-earth export licences, underscoring its 70 % share of global output and raising supply-chain anxiety6.
  • Radar start-up aiRadar tapped Sivers Semiconductors for a 28 GHz beam-forming antenna module based on the TRX BF02 RFIC789.
  • Japanese researchers demonstrated an ultra-compact 150 GHz phased-array transceiver module—a building block for 6 G back-haul and chip-to-chip radio links10.
  • Apple confirmed macOS 26 “Tahoe” will be the last major release for Intel Macs, completing the transition to Apple Silicon1112.
  • Taipei Times data show TSMC widened its foundry share to 67.6 % in Q1 even as smartphone orders softened13.
  • Barron’s notes Qualcomm’s Alphawave buy is lifting the buyer’s share price as investors digest integration upside14.

Did you know? SK hynix’s new 4F² vertical‑gate DRAM architecture slashes cell area by ~30% and cuts reliance on costly EUV lithography—reducing EUV-related expenses by nearly 50%.


In-depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

  • London export-control talks

    • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions are “going well,” focusing on semiconductor licences and rare-earth swaps2.
    • White House advisers hinted that some mature-node chip curbs could be relaxed if Beijing speeds magnet deliveries—but Nvidia’s Blackwell line is not on the table23.
  • H20 GPU ban stands

    • U.S. negotiators rejected China’s request to unblock Nvidia’s H20; TrendForce says license approvals remain at “effectively zero” since April3.
    • Chinese hyperscalers are pivoting to domestic Ascend clusters and rescheduled AI deployments.
  • China’s rare-earth licence review

    • MOFCOM began case-by-case approvals on 7 June; TrendForce counts ten exporters now cleared, well short of industry demand6.
    • EU and U.S. downstream suppliers warn of mid-July inventory gaps for NdFeB magnets.
  • Huawei’s strategic candor

    • Ren Zhengfei pegged Huawei’s chips “one generation behind,” yet claimed $25 billion annual R&D spend and interest in heterogeneous compound devices5.
    • He framed cluster computing and non-Moore scaling as paths around U.S. lithography restrictions.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • TSMC’s May blow-out

    • Sales jumped to NT$236.2 bn (~US $7.4 bn), driven by stocking of 5-nm and 3-nm AI parts for Nvidia, Apple and AMD1.
    • Management flagged “visibility through Q3” despite PC and handset softness.
  • Foundry league-table shuffle

    • TrendForce’s Q1 scorecard shows TSMC at 67.6 % share; Samsung dropped to 7.7 % on consumer weakness, while SMIC eked out growth on subsidy-fuelled mature nodes13.
    • Analysts see pricing pressure on Samsung unless its 2-nm GAA ramp regains momentum.
  • DRAM revenue picture

    • SK hynix’s HBM3e surge let it edge past Samsung to top spot in Q1 revenue (US $9.72 bn vs. Samsung’s US $9.1 bn)4.
    • TrendForce expects server DDR4 contract prices to rise another 18-23 % QoQ as suppliers wind down legacy lines.
  • Qualcomm-Alphawave ripple effects

    • Barron’s reports QCOM shares up 3.4 % on deal optimism; analysts say Alphawave’s 2-nm UCIe IP will slot into Qualcomm’s next-gen AI CPU road-map14.

3. Technology & R&D

  • SK hynix 4F VG & 3-D DRAM

    • CTO Cha Seon-Yong detailed vertical-gate cells and wafer-bonded 3-D DRAM to break density limits below 10 nm4.
    • The company targets mass production “early 2027” with a claimed 30 % energy cut versus today’s 1-alpha node.
  • Ultra-compact 150 GHz radio module

    • A Science Tokyo/NICT team integrated an 8-element phased array and bi-active sub-harmonic mixer in a 20 mm × 8.4 mm AiP, slashing LO power via injection-locked tripling10.
    • Potential uses span 6 G fixed-wireless back-haul and chip-to-chip terabit links.
  • Sivers 28 GHz antenna-in-module

    • The TRX BF02-based unit promises dual-use radar coverage for autonomous vehicles and defense, with deliveries slated for mid-202678915.
    • Contract value was undisclosed but analysts peg similar mm-wave modules at ~US $15 m per design-win.
  • Apple’s Intel sunset

    • macOS 26 “Tahoe” will support only a handful of late-2019/20 Intel Macs; macOS 27 goes Apple-Silicon-only, cementing ARM across the product line1112.
    • Developers have 12 months to transition high-performance plug-ins to M-series SoCs.

Footnotes


  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-10/tsmc-s-may-sales-surge-39-6-on-resilient-ai-demand ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-trade-talks-resume-second-day-2025-06-10/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/10/news-h20-ai-chip-ban-reportedly-holds-as-china-u-s-talks-heat-up-whats-next-for-both-sides/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/10/news-sk-hynix-charts-dram-roadmap-highlighting-4f-vg-and-3d-dram-adoption-for-sub-10nm-era/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  5. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-exaggerating-huaweis-ai-chip-achievements-china-state-media-quotes-ceo-saying-2025-06-10/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  6. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/10/news-china-controls-70-of-global-rare-earth-output-meet-the-top-10-suppliers-behind-it/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  7. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SIVERS-SEMICONDUCTORS-AB-61747388/news/Sivers-Semiconductors-wins-development-contract-for-antenna-module-50196805/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  8. https://bisinfotech.com/sivers-secures-airadar-deal-for-28ghz-module/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  9. https://www.sivers-semiconductors.com/press-releases/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  10. https://techxplore.com/news/2025-06-ultra-compact-phased-array-transceiver.html ↩︎ ↩︎

  11. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/10/news-apple-ends-intel-mac-support-with-macos-26-tahoe-finalizing-move-to-apple-silicon/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  12. https://www.engadget.com/apple-will-drop-intel-mac-support-with-macos-26-tahoe-090002105.html ↩︎ ↩︎

  13. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2025/06/10/2003838326 ↩︎ ↩︎

  14. https://www.barrons.com/articles/qualcomm-stock-alphawave-deal-599e71ac ↩︎ ↩︎

  15. https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com%2C2025%3Anewsml_TUC4RWGWH%3A0-sivers-semiconductors-wins-contract-from-airadar/ ↩︎