May 15, 2025

Exports shift, capex surges, and AI accelerators find new homes

Round-up

Highlights

  1. TSMC’s nine-fab blitz – The foundry will break ground on eight wafer fabs and one advanced-packaging site this year, while confirming sub-2 nm volume in Taichung by 2028 1.
  2. Beijing hits back at Huawei ban – China’s commerce ministry accused the U.S. of “abusing” export controls hours after Washington warned that using Huawei Ascend GPUs “anywhere in the world” is illegal 23.
  3. Samsung moves photomasks offshore – The company will outsource low-end masks and redirect internal capacity toward ArF and EUV work, accelerating localisation of Japan-sourced blanks and pellicles 4.

Other developments

  • Dutch tool-maker ASM International tells investors it will pass new U.S. tariffs straight to customers 5.
  • AI-server demand and early shipments drove Foxconn revenues to record highs in April 6.
  • Qualcomm re-enters the data-centre CPU arena via Saudi-backed HUMAIN cloud projects 7.
  • Deutsche Bank discreetly lifted its ASML stake to $17 million, underscoring EUV confidence 8.
  • Next week’s Computex will revolve around AI alliances and tariff hedging, with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang topping the keynote slate 9.
  • Huawei teases a foldable PC powered by its own Kirin X90 SoC, launching 19 May 10.

Did you know? Shrinking nodes add masks fast: a 10 nm logic chip needed ~67 masks, but 1.75 nm designs will pass 78‍—a 16 % jump that helps explain Samsung’s photomask rethink 4.


In-depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

  • Global ban on Huawei Ascend use

    • New BIS guidance makes operating Huawei’s Ascend 910B/910C/910D GPUs worldwide a licence violation 3.
    • China’s Commerce Ministry called the step “blatant abuse” and demanded a policy reversal 2.
    • Lawyers warn multi-national cloud operators face sudden audit exposure.
  • Tariff pass-through by ASM International

    • ASM told Bank of America analysts it will forward U.S. tariff costs down the chain 5.
    • Management claims flexible manufacturing keeps it competitive with AMAT and Lam.
    • Chinese orders may still hit the high-end of 2025 guidance despite duties.
  • Samsung photomask localisation push

    • Outsourcing i-line/KrF masks frees internal fab space for EUV blanks 4.
    • Part of a broader drive to cut Japan dependency on ArF blanks and pellicles.
    • Domestic suppliers being qualified through Q3 2025.
  • Computex tariff undercurrent

    • Organisers expect 1,400 exhibitors; AI-server partnerships likely centre-stage 9.
    • Nvidia may unveil more Taiwan-made Blackwell systems amid U.S. tariff rhetoric.
    • Qualcomm, MediaTek and Foxconn plan side events on “edge AI” resilience.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • TSMC’s nine-plant expansion

    • Facilities span Taiwan, the U.S. and Japan, lifting annual fab build-rate from five to nine 1.
    • Fab 25 (Taichung) will target nodes beyond 2 nm, with mass production in 2028.
    • Advanced-packaging SoIC/CoWoS capacity forecast to grow >80 % through 2026.
  • AI server boom lifts Foxconn & peers

    • Combined April revenue of Taiwan’s top 19 tech firms hit NT$1.61 trn, up 27 % y/y 6.
    • Foxconn’s Q1 profit surged 91 %, driven by >50 % growth in AI-server sales.
    • TSMC’s April revenue jumped 22 % m/m to a new record NT$349.6 bn.
  • Qualcomm returns to data-centre silicon

    • MoU with Saudi-backed HUMAIN positions Snapdragon-based CPUs in local AI clouds 7.
    • Company will open a chip design centre in Riyadh; first deployments expected 2026.
    • Marks the first server push since the Centriq cancellation in 2019.
  • ASML attracts fresh institutional cash

    • Deutsche Bank raised its holding by 614 shares, now worth $17 m 8.
    • Move follows analyst upgrades that cite long-term High-NA EUV demand.

3. Technology & R&D

  • Samsung shifts mask resources to EUV

    • Internal teams redeployed from legacy i-line/KrF to ArF and EUV development 4.
    • Trial partners include Toppan’s Tekscend and Photronics-owned PKL for low-end masks.
    • Strategy aims to safeguard capacity for 2 nm and below.
  • Huawei’s foldable PC with Kirin X90

    • 10-core arm-based SoC built at SMIC 7 nm, paired with HarmonyOS-PC 10.
    • Launch underscores Huawei’s pivot away from Windows after licence revocations.
    • Device slots into “Ultimate Design” premium line, shipping 2H25.
  • Computex AI hardware previews

    • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to headline, likely announcing new Foxconn and Quanta servers 9.
    • Qualcomm to demo edge-AI PCs; MediaTek to outline on-device LLM roadmap.
    • Intel’s Lip-Bu Tan holds private round-table on 14A and high-NA pilots.
  • Ascend crackdown reverberates in R&D

    • Guidance forces global labs to audit accelerator clusters for Huawei silicon 3.
    • Start-ups exploring open-source tool-chains to avoid U.S. IP entanglement.
    • Could shift some AI model-training demand toward domestic Chinese GPU makers.

Footnotes


  1. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/05/15/news-tsmc-to-build-9-facilities-in-2025-sub-2nm-production-set-for-taichung-by-2028/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/china-accuses-us-abusing-export-control-measures-huawei-ai-chip-curb-2025-05-15/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/u-s-issues-worldwide-crackdown-on-using-huawei-ascend-chips-says-it-violates-export-controls ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/05/15/news-samsung-reportedly-outsourcing-low-end-photomasks-focusing-resources-on-arf-and-euv/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  5. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/asm-pass-tariff-costs-buyers-says-no-disadvantage-against-peers-2025-05-15/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  6. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/05/15/news-tariff-concerns-and-early-shipments-drive-april-revenue-surge-for-taiwans-top-it-firms/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  7. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/qualcomm-confirms-it-is-re-entering-the-data-center-cpu-market-starting-with-saudi-arabias-ai-cloud-project ↩︎ ↩︎

  8. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/deutsche-bank-ag-increases-stake-in-asml-holding-nasdaqasml-2025-05-15/ ↩︎ ↩︎

  9. https://www.reuters.com/technology/taiwans-computex-showcase-ai-advances-nvidias-huang-take-centre-stage-2025-05-15/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  10. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/05/15/news-huawei-to-unveil-first-foldable-pc-next-monday-reportedly-powered-by-in-house-kirin-x90/ ↩︎ ↩︎