May 9, 2025

Regulatory whiplash, profit warnings

Round-up

Highlights

  1. Nvidia sidesteps U.S. export caps. A “lite” H20 GPU with halved memory ships by July, preserving an $18 bn China backlog even as Washington overhauls the curbs1.
  2. SMIC’s post‑earnings hangover. After yesterday’s headline profits, the foundry warned Q2 revenue could fall 4–6 %, sending Hong Kong shares down 6.8 %2.
  3. 3D X‑DRAM promises 10 × density. NEO Semiconductor unveiled stackable 1T1C/3T0C cells that could upend DRAM economics by 20263.

Other developments:

  • Microchip issues bullish Q1 guide
  • Infineon trims FY‑25 outlook on tariff fog
  • ChipMOS April sales –8 % MoM
  • Intel Foundry wins Microsoft for 18A; Compal funds a GPU‑annealer for quantum R&D
  • OLED monitor shipments +175 % YoY.

Did You Know? Despite January’s tiered rule, China still generated 13 % (≈$17 bn) of Nvidia’s FY‑25 revenue1.

In‑depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

  • Nvidia’s H20 “lite” for China

    • Memory‑throttled design slips below the licensing threshold1.
    • Tencent, Alibaba and ByteDance have pre‑ordered, underscoring demand for legal AI compute.

  • Export‑curb rewrite gains traction

    • Bloomberg leak lifted chip shares yesterday; today’s Reuters “Take Five” notes traders are now betting on a simpler country‑by‑country system4.
    • Barron’s records Nvidia +2 %, AMD +1.9 %, Broadcom +1.7 % in early trade5.

  • SMIC’s tariff caution

    • Co‑CEO Zhao Haijun flagged demand risk if U.S.–China duties inflate end prices2.
    • Orders were front‑loaded ahead of the latest tariff deadlines.

  • Middle‑East diplomacy may ease chip frictions

    • Reuters notes Trump’s Riyadh trip could link security guarantees to softer semiconductor rules4.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • Microchip Technology turns the corner

    • Guides Q1 sales to $1.02–1.07 bn vs. $988 m consensus; stock +8 % after hours6.
    • CEO cites “substantial” inventory burn‑off across auto and industrial clients.

  • Infineon cuts FY‑25 revenue target

    • Shaves ~€1 bn, blaming tariff timing uncertainty; keeps mid‑teens margin goal7.
    • Adds a 10 % haircut to September‑quarter sales assumptions.

  • SMIC shares sink on softer guide

    • Profit jump faded as yields lagged on new lines; Hong Kong listing –6.8 %2.

  • ChipMOS April revenue slips

    • NT$1.86 bn (US$58.2 m) down 8.4 % MoM, mirroring sluggish handset demand8.

3. Technology & R&D

  • 3D X‑DRAM breaks scaling wall

    • Stackable cells target 512 Gb dies, 10 ns access and 450 s retention, wedding DRAM speed to NAND cost3.
    • Proof‑of‑concept chip slated for 2026; rivals HBM bandwidth density.

  • Intel Foundry bags Microsoft for 18A

    • First cloud‑scale customer for IFS; risk production already under way, with 18A‑P follow‑on in 20269.

  • Compal’s GPU Annealer joins Taiwan quantum push

    • National Science and Technology Council backs GPU‑driven digital annealing for photomask and drug‑design use‑cases10.

  • OLED monitors surge

    • Q1 shipments 507 k units (+175 % YoY); TrendForce forecasts 650 k in Q2 on 27‑inch UHD demand11.

Footnotes

  1. Nvidia modifies H20 chip for China to overcome US export controls – Reuters (2025-05-09) ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. SMIC to monitor impact of tariffs on demand, says Co-CEO – Reuters (2025-05-09) ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. New Generation of 3D X-DRAM Unveiled – TrendForce (2025-05-09) ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. Global Market Themes: Take Five – Reuters (2025-05-09) ↩︎ ↩︎

  5. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom Stocks Rise on AI Optimism – Barron’s (2025-05-09) ↩︎

  6. Microchip Forecasts Q1 Revenue Above Estimates – Reuters (2025-05-08) ↩︎

  7. Infineon Cuts FY2025 Outlook on Tariff Uncertainty – WSJ (2025-05-09) ↩︎

  8. ChipMOS Technology Reports April 2025 Sales – FT Markets Data (2025-05-09) ↩︎

  9. Intel Foundry Reportedly Secures Microsoft Contract for 18A Node – TechPowerUp (2025-05-09) ↩︎

  10. Compal Unveils GPU Annealer for Quantum Research – Taiwan News (2025-05-09) ↩︎

  11. OLED Monitor Shipments Surge by 175% in Q1 – TrendForce (2025-05-09) ↩︎