May 8, 2025

Round-up

Highlights

1. Washington blinks on AI‑chip controls. A late‑day leak confirmed the Trump administration will scrap the complex “tier” licensing rule unveiled in January and draft a simpler bilateral system—lifting chipmakers’ shares and rewriting compliance playbooks.¹
2. China’s SMIC posts a 162 % profit surge. Beijing’s national champion beat the cycle with Q1 profit of $188 million and 28 % revenue growth, underscoring how “legacy‑plus” nodes remain lucrative—even under U.S. restrictions.²
3. Cadence + Nvidia unveil the Millennium M2000 supercomputer. Thirty‑two Blackwell GPUs shrink multi‑physics simulations from eight days to < 24 hours; Nvidia is buying ten boxes for its own chip‑design teams.³

Other developments

• ASML fast‑tracks a 50‑football‑field campus outside Eindhoven, promising EUV tool output two years earlier than planned.⁴
• TrendForce says Marvell, Samsung & MediaTek have suspended FY‑25 forecasts as tariff scenarios swing from 25 % – 100 %.⁵
• Infineon trims revenue outlook, citing “tariff hit” yet sees share price pop on relief the cut wasn’t deeper.⁶
• Intel’s XeSS 2 upscaler passes the 200‑game mark, keeping Battlemage GPUs in the ray‑tracing conversation.⁷

Did you know? Apple’s first in‑house C1 5G modem already ships in the iPhone 16e—and its C3 successor, due 2027, targets higher AI throughput than Qualcomm’s roadmap.⁸

In‑depth

1  Government & Corporate Policy

• AI‑chip export overhaul

  • Commerce will junk the three‑tier rule and negotiate nation‑by‑nation licenses, easing collateral damage to India, Israel and Switzerland.¹ ([Reuters][1])
  • WSJ notes Nvidia rallied 3 % on the news after warning of a $5.5 bn China hit under the old rule.⁹

• Tariff fog stalls guidance

  • Marvell pushed its June investor day to 2026; Samsung dropped Q2 guidance; TSMC asked suppliers for cost cuts.⁵
  • Analysts flag potential 25 %‑100 % duties on “wafer‑out” origin, a sharp break from current country‑of‑assembly practice.

• Late‑session chip rally after Fed hold

  • PHLX SOX swung from –1 % to +1.7 % once Bloomberg’s curbs story hit the tape, highlighting policy’s market leverage.¹⁰

• Infineon trims FY‑25

  • Munich cites “double‑digit” tariff risk to automotive MCU sales, yet investors bid the stock up on relief the damage was bounded.⁶

2  Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

• SMIC beats the downturn

  • Profit +162 % Y/Y to $188 m on 28 % revenue growth; margins aided by export‑control‑proof 55 nm and 28 nm lines.²
  • Missed the street by ~15 %, reminding analysts that sanctions still bite at the high end.

• Samsung front‑loads Galaxy S25 production

  • Boosting May output by 800 k units to get phones across the Pacific before any tariff decision locks in.¹¹

• ASML expansion signal

  • 357 k m² campus pulls in hiring by 2028, adding capacity for High‑NA EUV as demand from U.S. fabs spikes.⁴

• Market sentiment

  • Traders rotated into semis on the export‑curb news—Nvidia +3 %, AMD +2 %, Broadcom +1.8 % pre‑market.¹⁰

3  Technology & R&D

• Cadence Millennium M2000

  • 32× GB200 “Blackwell” GPUs; CFD run on Boeing 777 wing cut from 8 days to < 24 h, freeing engineers for design space exploration.³
  • Jensen Huang confirmed Nvidia will buy ten for next‑gen GPU floorplanning.

• Intel XeSS 2 milestone

  • Adds ten more titles (Diablo IV 4× FPS uplift) and breaks 200 supported games, keeping Intel in the upscaling arms race.⁷

• ASML mega‑campus

  • New Brainport Industries site adds 20 k jobs and shortens EUV tool lead times; Dutch gov’t dedicates €1.7 bn to power‑grid upgrades.⁴

• Apple modem roadmap

  • C1 already in iPhone 16e; C2 with mmWave arrives 2026; C3 integrates AI acceleration to leapfrog Qualcomm in 2027.⁸

Footnotes