May 7, 2025

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Round-up

Highlights

1. AMD says Washington’s new rules slice $1.5 billion off 2025 sales. CFO Jean Hu warned the bite will hit hardest in Q2‑Q3—even as Q1 revenue jumped 36 %¹.
2. Cisco moves first in quantum networking. A prototype photonic‑entanglement chip and a new Santa Monica lab aim to stitch many small quantum computers into a single cluster years before full‑scale qubit hardware matures².

Other developments:

• Intel slashes Core Ultra‑7 SRPs by up to 25 %³
• Nvidia and MediaTek prep N1/N1X Arm PC CPUs for Computex⁴
• Nvidia freezes China‑bound RTX 5090D shipments⁵
• GlobalFoundries guides Q2 above expectations⁶
• AMD shifts 4 nm orders from Samsung to TSMC Arizona⁷
• Taiwan‑dollar surge threatens TSMC, UMC margins⁸.

Did you know? Every 1 % rise in the New Taiwan dollar trims foundry gross margin by roughly 0.3‑0.5 percentage points, TrendForce says—so the NTD’s 10 % jump this quarter could erase up to five margin points for TSMC and peers⁸.

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In‑depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

‑ U.S. export‑control fallout widens

• AMD pegs a $1.5 bn revenue hit and a gross‑margin drag of 11 pts, largely from MI308 AI GPUs¹.
• Nvidia halts RTX 5090D shipments after Chinese reports the card still violates new TOPS thresholds⁵.

‑ Currency shock policy response

• A 10 % NTD surge prompts TSMC to seek 30 % supplier cost cuts, highlighting FX as an industrial‑policy wild card⁸.

‑ Arizona fast‑tracks become political showcase

• AMD’s switch from Samsung to TSMC’s 4 nm U.S. line underscores incentives for on‑shore capacity and bipartisan support for “friend‑shored” leading nodes⁷.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

‑ Foundry FX squeeze

• TrendForce estimates 0.3‑0.5 pt margin loss per 1 % NTD rise; mature‑node players like VIS warn Q2 gross could dip below 29 %⁸.

‑ Intel wields price cuts to defend desktop share

• Official SRPs for Core Ultra‑7 265K/KF fall by $100 (~25 %), narrowing the gap with AMD AM5 combos ahead of Arrow Lake‑S³.

‑ GlobalFoundries steady amid soft consumer demand

• Foundry projects Q2 revenue of $1.66‑1.70 bn and EPS 5 cts above consensus, citing automotive and RF strength⁶.

‑ Nvidia/MediaTek tie‑up hints at volume ambitions

• MediaTek has reserved “unusually large” FCBGA capacity for N1/N1X chips, signaling a mainstream Windows‑on‑Arm play rather than halo SKUs⁴.

3. Technology & R&D

‑ Cisco’s entanglement switch debuts

• Co‑developed with UCSB, the chip pairs photons and ships one from each pair to remote qubit nodes, enabling sub‑picosecond sync and point‑to‑point quantum links².
• Early commercial use‑cases include ultra‑precise financial‑trade timestamping and distributed sensing².

‑ China claims home‑grown EUV light‑source breakthrough

• Researchers demonstrate an indigenous plasma source meeting “internationally competitive” brightness metrics, challenging ASML’s long‑held monopoly⁹.

‑ Arm PCs get heavyweight silicon

• Nvidia & MediaTek’s N1/N1X pair Cortex‑X925 clusters with Blackwell GPUs; dev‑hurdles could push retail launch to 2026⁴.

‑ AMD validates first U.S. 4 nm wafers

• “Venice” HPC part clears initial tests at TSMC Arizona, marking a key milestone toward 2 nm domestic production in 2026⁷.

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Footnotes