May 6, 2025

Round-up

Highlights

1. Cap the leak: A bipartisan U.S. bill would force AI accelerators like Nvidia’s to phone home—and even refuse to boot—if they cross export‑control lines, aiming to end the black‑market flow of H100‑class silicon into China ¹².
2. Europe opens the wallet: Industry group SEMI demands that Brussels quadruple semiconductor funding to €20 billion in the next long‑term budget, effectively calling for “Chips Act 2.0” ³.
3. AMD votes with its wafers: Reports say AMD has cancelled 4 nm orders at Samsung Foundry and will instead use TSMC’s new Arizona fabs, underscoring how geopolitical risk is reshaping sourcing strategies ⁴.

Other developments

• GlobalFoundries guides Q2 revenue and EPS slightly above Street despite auto softness ⁵
• Intel’s Core Ultra Series 2 records the first full‑NPU score in MLPerf Client v0.6 ⁶
• Apple’s iPhone 17 Pro jumps to 12 GB DRAM; Samsung may win 70 % of the order book ⁷
• Foxconn’s April sales surge 25 %, helped by tariff‑driven pull‑ins ahead of U.S. levies ⁸
• Notebook‑panel prices hold firm as buyers brace for U.S. import duties ⁹

Did You Know? Intel’s benchmark run shows its NPU spits out the first token of an Llama‑2 prompt in 1.09 s, faster than the average person can read the word “semiconductor” ⁶.

In‑depth

1 — Government & Corporate Policy

• Smuggling clamp‑down bill hits Congress

  • Rep. Bill Foster’s draft mandates on‑chip location pings and “kill‑switch” boot locks for export‑controlled AI hardware ¹.
  • The proposal has bipartisan co‑sponsors and directs Commerce to finalise rules within six months ¹.
  • Analysts warn compliance could add BOM cost but would also create a pedigree premium for verified parts ².

• SEMI’s €260 billion investment plan for the EU

  • The group’s formal response to Brussels calls for a standalone semiconductor line in the 2028‑34 budget ³.
  • Targets: 20 % global share, local AI/quantum capability, and tooling incentives to lure U.S. gear makers.
  • Without it, auditors say Europe will stall at 11.7 % share by 2030 ³.

• AMD exits Samsung’s 4 nm, backs “TSMC Arizona”

  • TrendForce says yield concerns and supply‑chain risk pushed AMD to scrap SF4X plans ⁴.
  • TSMC’s 4 nm line in Phoenix will now carry Ryzen APUs and Radeon GPUs slated for 2H 25.
  • Samsung counters with early 2 nm yield above 30 %, courting Qualcomm for Snapdragon 8 Elite 2 ⁴.

• Apple’s memory re‑shuffle

  • iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max will ship with 12 GB LPDDR5X; Samsung could corner 70 % of volumes ⁷.
  • Higher BOM boosts DRAM ASPs by ~50 %, a welcome tail‑wind for a bruised memory market.
  • Apple seeks multi‑source deals with SK Hynix and Micron to cap risk, insiders say ⁷.

2 — Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

• GlobalFoundries stays steady amid tariff fog

  • Q2 guidance: $1.68 bn ± $25 m revenue, $0.36 EPS mid‑point ⁵.
  • Auto chips offset smartphone softness; management says U.S. chip tariffs may help domestic fabs.
  • Potential CHIPS‑Act rule changes remain the swing factor for 2H capex decisions.

• Foxconn posts double‑digit top‑line pop

  • April revenue +25.5 % y/y as customers rush orders ahead of looming U.S. duties ⁸.
  • The assembler forecasts Q2 growth but warns that “political economics” could whipsaw demand.
  • iPhone charter‑cargo runs out of India continue after March’s $2 bn airlift spree.

• Flat screens, flat prices (for now)

  • TrendForce says notebook (NB) panels will stay price‑flat in May; monitor (MNT) panels eke out $0.1–$0.2 gains thanks to tariff pull‑in ⁹.
  • TV panel makers cut utilisation 6–7 % to curb oversupply.
  • Buyers are haggling hard, betting demand will cliff‑dive once the 90‑day tariff reprieve ends.

• Healthcare feels the chip‑tariff pinch

  • Philips trims 2025 EBITA margin target by ~1 pp, blaming €250–€300 m tariff hit and flagging possible U.S. localisation moves ¹⁰.
  • Management is lobbying to exempt med‑tech devices but warns of consumer‑price hikes if duties stick.
  • Rival GE HealthCare cites a potential $500 m profit drag in the same scenario.

3 — Technology & R & D

• AMD’s foundry flip sparks 4 nm churn

  • Scrapping Samsung slots frees EPYC and Radeon dies for TSMC’s U.S. line, mitigating cross‑strait risk ⁴.
  • Engineers will back‑port design kits, but cycle slippage is expected to be <8 weeks.
  • The move underscores how dual‑source strategies can evaporate under yield + geopolitics pressure.

• Samsung hits 30 % yield on 2 nm test run

  • SF2 node exceeds expectations; mass‑production for Exynos 2600 targeted 2H 25 ⁴.
  • Talks underway to fab Qualcomm’s next flagship SoC, potentially ending TSMC’s 2 nm exclusivity.
  • Yield milestone re‑energises Seoul’s pitch to attract AI accelerator designs.

• Intel logs industry‑first full‑NPU MLPerf score

  • Core Ultra 9 288V clocks 1.09 s first‑token latency and 18.6 tokens/s throughput on Llama‑2 tasks ⁶.
  • MLPerf v0.6 now officially recognises NPUs alongside GPUs, setting a new laptop‐class yard‑stick.
  • Intel claims software parity via OpenVINO; rivals must follow or risk “paper TOPS” claims.

• Apple’s DRAM bump fuels supplier rally

  • 12 GB tier raises per‑handset DRAM dollar content by ~US$5–6 ⁷.
  • Samsung’s potential 70 % share sent Korean DRAM futures up in after‑hours trade.
  • On‑device LLM features are driving Apple’s spec—hinting at bigger silicon in A19.

Footnotes