May 2, 2025

Reticles, Robots, and Relaxed Restrictions

Round-up

Highlights

  1. TSMC goes “5×‑9×‑9.5×” on CoWoS. The foundry will expand interposer reticle sizes up to 9.5×, clearing the path for 12‑stack HBM monster packages and keeping AI accelerators fed through 20271
  2. White House mulls easing NVIDIA chip restrictions for the UAE. A bilateral accord could be announced during President Trump’s upcoming Gulf trip, signaling a selective thaw in AI‑hardware export controls2
  3. ASM International shifts tool production to Arizona. The Dutch ALD specialist is already turning out equipment stateside to skirt looming U.S. tariffs and stay close to priority customers3

Other developments

  • Samsung hints at “massive” new U.S. fabs as tariff hedges grow4
  • Zoho scraps its $700 M India foundry bid, denting New Delhi’s silicon dreams5
  • Micron starts sampling G9‑NAND UFS 4.1 for 1 TB phones6
  • EU auditors warn one‑third of legacy chips now come from China, calling it a “high‑risk” dependency7
  • Rare‑earth export curbs from Beijing threaten higher fab costs by 20268
  • FDA grants Neuralink breakthrough status for a speech‑restoring brain‑computer chip9

Did you know? TSMC’s planned 9.5× CoWoS interposer would exceed the photolithography reticle field of a standard ASML EUV scanner by nearly three orders of magnitude in package area, turning an entire wafer quadrant into a single substrate1

In‑depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

  • Selective détente on AI hardware.

    • U.S. officials are weighing a carve‑out that lets NVIDIA ship advanced GPUs to the UAE under a broader investment deal2.
    • Any exemption would still require end‑use monitoring similar to recent Singapore and Vietnam waivers.

  • Samsung’s U.S. mega‑fab teaser.

    • President Trump claimed Samsung plans “massive” new plants beyond its Taylor, TX site, attributing the decision to tariffs4.
    • Korean media say equipment imports, including EUV tools, remain hostage to tariff timing.

  • ASM International’s tariff dodge.

    • By localizing ALD tool assembly in Arizona, ASMI protects 21 % of its revenue tied to U.S. customers and mitigates 10–25 % duty exposure3.
    • The firm says proximity also accelerates service cycles for Intel and TSMC fabs in the Southwest.

  • EU legacy‑chip alarm.

    • A European Court of Auditors report shows China supplies 33 % of EU mature‑node demand, calling the dependency “high risk”7.
    • Funding gaps under the EU Chips Act mean Brussels may miss its 20 % global‑share goal by 2030.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • India’s silicon stumbles.

    • Zoho halted its $700 M 28 nm fab project after failing to secure a tech partner, the second big Indian plan paused in three weeks5.
    • The retreat underscores how capital‑intensive fabs strain even “unicorn” software margins.

  • Korean exports defy tariff headwinds.

    • April shipments jumped 3.7 % y/y on a 17 % surge in memory chips, offsetting weaker autos10.
    • Economists warn the boost may fade once the current 90‑day tariff pause expires in July.

  • Rare‑earth squeeze kicks up cost forecasts.

    • EE Times Asia cites BCG modeling that rare‑earth restrictions could add single‑digit percentage points to wafer‑fab COGS by 20268.
    • III‑V compound‑semiconductor lines are most vulnerable to dysprosium and terbium supply shocks.

  • Micron’s smartphone storage gambit.

    • Early G9‑NAND samples target flagship phones with 10‑15 % faster writes and a sub‑1 mm package6.
    • Analysts see the part as a volume driver for FY2026 even as DRAM ASPs plateau.

3. Technology & R&D

  • CoWoS reticle leap‑frog.

    • TSMC will scale interposers from 3.5× today to 5× this year, 9× in 2026, and 9.5× in 2027, enabling >12 HBM stacks per package1.
    • Intel’s Foveros‑S counters with glass‑core bridges, setting up a packaging arms race.

  • Neuralink’s speech‑restoration implant.

    • FDA “Breakthrough Device” status clears human trials for a 1,024‑electrode BCI aimed at ALS patients9.
    • The design uses a custom low‑power RF ASIC fabricated on a 6‑nm node.

  • Samsung’s HBM4 customization push.

    • Korean reports say Samsung is negotiating bespoke HBM4 stacks for NVIDIA and Google Cloud, beating SK Hynix to volume quotes4.
    • Tweaks cover non‑standard voltages and TSV pitch to align with Blackwell‑class GPUs.

  • Micron’s G9‑NAND UFS 4.1.

    • Sequential write speeds gain 15 % vs G8 while shrinking board footprint by 25 %6.
    • Early adopters include foldable smartphone OEMs targeting Q4 launches.

Footnotes

  1. TrendForce — “Wafer-Level Packaging Showdown: TSMC Scales up CoWoS Reticle Size, as Intel Readies Foveros-S” (May 2, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. TrendForce — “Trump Reportedly Weighs Loosening NVIDIA Chip Curbs for UAE Amid Intel-Linked Investment Talks” (May 2, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. TrendForce — “Dutch Firm ASM International Reportedly Starts U.S. Production to Sidestep Tariffs, Taps Arizona” (May 2, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. TrendForce — “Trump Says Samsung Plans Massive U.S. Plants Despite Taylor Project Hurdles” (May 2, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  5. Reuters — “Zoho Suspends $700 Million Chipmaking Plan in Latest Setback for India, Sources Say” (May 1, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎

  6. TrendForce — “Micron Began Sampling G9-NAND-based Mobile UFS 4.1 Products” (May 2, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  7. TrendForce — “EU Auditors Warn of High Risk: China Supplies One-Third of EU Legacy Chip Imports” (May 1, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎

  8. EE Times Asia — “Production Delays, Higher Costs in the Chip Industry Expected Amid China’s Rare Earth Controls” (May 2, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎

  9. India Today — “Elon Musk’s Neuralink Gets FDA Nod for Chip That Will Let Speech-Impaired People Speak; Human Trials Soon” (May 2, 2025) ↩︎ ↩︎

  10. Reuters — “South Korea Exports Beat Forecast as Chips Soar, but Outlook Uncertain” (May 1, 2025) ↩︎