April 30, 2025

Round-up

Highlights

1. US may junk its three-tier AI-chip rule. Trump-era officials are weighing a blanket global-licensing system that would slash today’s “free pass” for sub-1,700 H100 orders to just 500 chips—reshaping where every advanced GPU can legally ship ¹².
2. TSMC breaks ground on Arizona Fab 3. The new line is slated for 2 nm (or better) nodes and lifts the Taiwanese giant’s total US commitment to roughly $165 billion—all while Commerce Secretary Lutnick tours the site amid tariff drama ³⁴.
3. Intel locks in test-chip partners for 14A. High-NA EUV, backside power and an early digital design kit tempted several unnamed customers, nudging Intel’s foundry ambitions back into the spotlight ⁵⁶.

Other developments:

• MediaTek withholds FY-25 guidance ⁷
• Samsung warns of tariff-hit demand ⁸
• Siltronic trims margins ⁹
• Taiwan posts a pre-tariff GDP surge ¹⁰
• India’s Adani freezes its $10 bn Tower Semi JV ¹¹.

Did you know? Dropping the licence-free ceiling from 1,700 to 500 Nvidia H100s equates to roughly $630 million in sales that would suddenly need US Commerce sign-off (at today’s $18 k list price per GPU) ¹.

In-depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

• AI-chip export overhaul on the table
  • Commerce insiders favour replacing the Biden-era tier system with bilateral licences and a far lower chip-volume exemption ¹.
  • Analysts say it would hand Washington a stronger bargaining chip—but could snarl compliance for EDA and cloud providers ².
• TSMC–Arizona Phase 3 starts pouring concrete
  • The new fab promises 2 nm output “before 2030,” extending the campus to three cleanrooms twice the typical logic-fab size ³.
  • Commerce Secretary Lutnick called it the single largest foreign investment in US history at $165 bn across five planned fabs ⁴.
• Adani pauses $10 bn India fab with Tower Semi
  • An internal review found local demand too opaque; Tower’s small equity slug also rankled the conglomerate ¹¹.
• Samsung weighs production shifts
  • Executives told analysts they may relocate TV & appliance runs if reciprocal US tariffs resume in July ⁸.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

• MediaTek drops full-year outlook
  • CEO Rick Tsai cited tariff fog but said AI demand keeps 1H “reasonably positive” ⁷.
• Siltronic cuts EBITDA margin to 21–25 %
  • The wafer maker sees elevated inventories and unclear US-tariff fallout; shares fell 2.5 % ⁹.
• Samsung Q1 beat masks export-risk angst
  • Memory profits slid 42 %, and management warned pull-in orders will dent H2 volumes if duties tighten ⁸.
• Taiwan GDP pops 5.4 % on AI front-loading
  • Firms hurried shipments before tariff deadlines; the statistics bureau flagged an “exceptional” hardware demand spike ¹⁰.

3. Technology & R & D

• Intel’s 14A node bags early adopters
  • High-NA EUV + backside power promise 25 % lower consumption vs 18A; risk production is set for 2027 ⁵⁶.
• Samsung inches toward Qualcomm 2 nm win
  • Leaks suggest Snapdragon 8 Elite 2 tape-out could mark Samsung’s first phone-AP order since 2022 ¹².
• TSMC Fab 3 aims straight at 2 nm and beyond
  • The third US line will host nanosheet transistors, complementing the 4 nm Fab 1 (2025) and 2 nm Fab 2 (2028) ³.
• Export-curb rumblings accelerate packaging pivots
  • Foundry customers told Intel they want sooner access to 3D-stacked test vehicles to hedge against cross-border supply risks ⁵.

Footnotes