April 22, 2025

Rare Earths, Risk Nodes & Revenue Tests

Round‑up

Highlights

  1. China weaponises rare‑earths—again. Letters from Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce warn Korean firms that exports containing Chinese rare‑earths must not reach U.S. defence contractors, or sanctions will follow. Supply‑chain lawyers are scrambling for work‑arounds1.
  2. Intel’s make‑or‑break earnings drop tonight. New boss Lip‑Bu Tan faces a fourth straight revenue slide while China threatens 85 % retaliatory tariffs on U.S. processors. Wall Street will judge whether Tan’s factory‑first reset can stick2.
  3. Ceva sneaks into next‑gen ADAS. Korean vision‑chip house Nextchip licensed Ceva’s 5 TOPS/W NeuPro‑M NPU IP for its 7 nm driver‑assist SoC, a significant design win that keeps DSP‑heavy inference alive at the edge3.

Other developments

  • Hedge funds cut “Magnificent 7” exposure to a two‑year low, accelerating the chip‑stock rout4.
  • Taiwan’s March export orders missed forecasts as China demand slipped; AI server parts were the lone bright spot5.
  • Patriotic Chinese retail investors are “buying the dip,” piling into domestic semiconductor shares amid tariff angst6.
  • Kyocera’s piezo‑ceramic HAPTIVITY® tech lands in Sigma’s new mirrorless camera—watch for automotive dashboards next7.
  • Intel spills fresh 18A (1.8 nm‑class) process specs: ≥20 % perf gain and backside power in risk production at Fab 52 Arizona8.

Did you know?
Nearly 70 % of the world’s processed rare‑earth supply still comes from China—so a single MOFCOM letter can freeze entire defense‑class transformer lines overnight1.

In‑depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

  • Beijing’s rare‑earth squeeze

    • MOFCOM letters threaten Korean exporters with sanctions for shipping rare‑earth‑containing parts to U.S. defense primes1.
    • Move follows China’s export‑control list on gallium, germanium and graphite; analysts see it as a calibrated tariff counter‑strike.
    • Korean trade officials are evaluating WTO options; expect contingency stock‑piling of neodymium magnets by Q3.

  • STEM crash course, Chinese edition

    • China’s Ministry of Education fast‑tracked 29 new university majors—including wafer‑process engineering, HBM integration and photonics—to “meet the country’s most urgent strategic needs”9.
    • Graduates will be channelled into state‑backed fabs such as SMIC and Hua Hong, boosting domestic talent retention.
    • Universities get accelerated funding and lab‑tool import quotas despite U.S. controls.

  • Tariff psychology on the trading floor

    • Mainland retail investors, spurred by state media, are scooping battered chip names to “defend the market.” Brokers see volumes triple in semiconductor ETFs6.
    • The campaign dovetails with Beijing’s “national team” purchases in defence and AI cloud sectors.

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • Intel earnings D‑day

    • Consensus looks for a 3.4 % y/y revenue drop and a $945 m loss; Tan’s cost‑cuts and 18A foundry narrative face first real test2.
    • China still forms nearly one‑third of Intel sales—an 85 % import tariff would hit margins hard.
    • Analysts want visibility on Ohio‑and‑Arizona fab cap‑ex cadence under tariff risk.

  • Hedge funds dump mega‑caps

    • Morgan Stanley prime‑broker data show the “Mag 7” now at the lowest hedge‑fund weight since 2023; Nvidia exits top‑five long book for first time since the ChatGPT boom4.
    • Rotation favours gold and defence contractors—but leaves semi indices off 22 % YTD.
    • Volatility desks warn of thin liquidity around option expiries tied to chip ETFs.

  • Taiwan export orders wobble

    • AI acceleration kept March tech orders up 12.5 % y/y, but weaker China demand dragged totals below expectations5.
    • MOEA projects April growth of only 6–10 % as buyers digest U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs timeline.
    • Memory ICs stayed resilient; smartphone SoCs fell for a third month.

3. Technology & R&D

  • Nextchip x Ceva NeuPro‑M NPU

    • 3 TOPS peak INT8 per watt lets the Korean ADAS chip fit fan‑less camera ECUs; production samples roll in Q43.
    • Combines CNN and transformer engines on a single DSP fabric, lowering BOM by ~20 % versus discrete GPU.
    • Design‑win underscores the edge‑AI shift away from monolithic GPUs—watch TI’s Jacinto line for a counter‑move.

  • Kyocera HAPTIVITY® hits imaging gear

    • Piezo‑ceramic actuators deliver dual‑phase tactile pulses (press & release) for “no‑button” UIs7.
    • Automotive HMI suppliers evaluating 85 °C modules; could pair neatly with OLED‑on‑Si cockpit displays.
    • Provides a new revenue lane for Kyocera’s advanced ceramics arm amid slowing smartphone component sales.

  • Intel 18A process details

    • New tech brief touts RibbonFETs plus backside PowerVia; risk production wafers running in Arizona, yields “>= 50 % for large dies”8.
    • Internal benchmarks claim >20 % perf/W over Intel 3 and density parity with TSMC N2; Nvidia & Broadcom continue test chips.
    • Panther Lake client CPUs and Clearwater Forest Xeon slated as lead vehicles.

  • Huawei Ascend 910C mass‑ship timer

    • Reuters sources say full production ramp starts May, with SMIC on N+2 7 nm for key dies; performance aims at Nvidia H100 class10.
    • Dual‑die GPU package doubles memory over 910B; Chinese cloud providers lining up pre‑orders after fresh U.S. licence freeze.
    • Raises new compliance headaches for Taiwanese OSATs involved in advanced packaging.

Footnotes

  1. SCMP – Beijing restricts rare-earths to defense-linked firms ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. Bloomberg – Intel Faces Big Test on Earnings Call ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. Ceva – NeuPro-M Licensed by Nextchip ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. Reuters – Hedge Funds Slash Chip Holdings ↩︎ ↩︎

  5. Taiwan MOEA – Export Order Stats March ↩︎ ↩︎

  6. SCMP – Chinese Investors Buy Chip Stocks ↩︎ ↩︎

  7. Kyocera – HAPTIVITY Tech in Sigma Cameras ↩︎ ↩︎

  8. Tom’s Hardware – Intel 18A Process Details ↩︎ ↩︎

  9. China MOE Announcement on Semiconductor Majors ↩︎

  10. Reuters – Huawei Ascend 910C Nears Mass Production ↩︎